CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast
OTTAWA, Ontario, July 15, 2026 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has released updated forecasts for home sales activity and average home prices across Canada for 2026 and 2027, based on data from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Systems operated by real estate boards and associations.
Since CREA published its previous forecast in mid-April, both the economy and housing markets have continued to shift. Concerns that higher oil prices would fuel inflation pushed fixed mortgage rates upward in late March, although those increases have since partially reversed. In addition, expectations for further Bank of Canada rate hikes this year have largely disappeared, providing some relief for both fixed and variable-rate mortgage holders.
While elevated oil prices have strengthened some regional economies, other parts of Canada are feeling the effects of slower population growth on housing demand sooner than anticipated. A recovery in home sales began to emerge in May, led by Ontario. British Columbia has experienced a more moderate pickup, while activity in other regions has remained mixed.
Overall, CREA has slightly lowered its national home sales forecast for 2026 to reflect the softer-than-expected first half of the year and the delayed start to the anticipated market recovery. Even so, sales activity is still expected to improve during the second half of the year.
This follows a pattern similar to what occurred in both 2024 and 2025. Looking ahead, sales are expected to strengthen across the country in 2027, with Ontario and the Prairie provinces forecast to outperform earlier expectations, while Quebec and Atlantic Canada are now projected to see slightly weaker activity than previously anticipated.
The revised outlook remains consistent with CREA’s longer-term view that housing markets across Canada will gradually return to more typical levels as key economic factors including inflation, interest rates, and population growth continue to stabilize after the significant volatility experienced during the first half of the 2020s.
CREA now forecasts that 463,336 residential properties will trade through Canadian MLS Systems in 2026, representing a modest 1.4% decline from 2025. This slight downward revision from April’s forecast, which had anticipated a small annual increase, reflects a faster-than-expected slowdown in regions dealing with both reduced population growth and ongoing supply challenges, particularly Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Ontario is now expected to be the only province to post higher annual sales in 2026 than in 2025.
The national average home price is forecast to increase 1.1% to $686,710 in 2026, remaining almost identical to CREA’s April projection. Nationally, this reflects price declines of less than 1% in Ontario and British Columbia, balanced by continued, though slowing price growth in other provinces. Alberta continues to stand out after prices resumed climbing during the second quarter, while Newfoundland and Labrador remains Canada’s only province still firmly in seller’s market territory.
In 2027, national home sales are projected to rise 3.7% to 480,567 units. Most provinces are expected to record gains of a similar size as slow but positive economic growth, stable interest rates, and generally steady or modestly rising home prices encourage more buyers to return to the market. Sales could exceed this forecast if outside economic factors do not disrupt the spring market for a fourth consecutive year.
The national average home price is also expected to rise 1.1% in 2027 to $694,164, again largely unchanged from CREA’s April forecast. Across most regions, price gains are expected to remain below the rate of inflation. If realized, this would mark the sixth and seventh consecutive years that Canada’s national average home price has remained near the $700,000 mark.
CREA updates its forecasts for home sales activity and average home prices every quarter using data from the MLS Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations. The organization’s next forecast is scheduled for release on Friday, October 16, 2026.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry associations, representing more than 155,000 REALTORS®. The organization advocates on behalf of property owners, buyers, and sellers while supporting the economic and social well-being of communities across the country.
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